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Prediction for CME (2024-08-10T03:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-08-10T03:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32684/-1
CME Note: Partial halo CME faintly seen towards the NE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and the NE of STEREO A COR2. Overlaps in the field of view with CME: 2024-08-10T03:12:00-CME-001. The likely source is an M5.3 flare peaking at 2024-08-10T02:37Z from AR 3780 (approx. S08W02) with associated eruption with dimming and post-eruptive arcades best seen in SDO AIA 193 and GOES SUVI 284. The eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUV 195. No CME arrival signature in the solar wind.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-08-12T21:30Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-08-10 08:10
 - Time at C2: 2024-08-10 03:24
 - Radial speed: 630.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 37 deg
 - Eruption location: N19E05
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 595.00 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2024-08-12 21:30 (i.e. predicted transit time: 66.12 hours)
Lead Time: 45.63 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2024-08-10T23:52Z
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